Story of the day
The Federal Reserve holds rates steady — and what the coverage isn't telling you
Truth
The Fed held the federal funds rate unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, with Chair Powell citing sustained inflation above target and resilient labor data.
Probabilities
One cut before year-end if jobs data softens. Extended hold through 2027 if inflation resurges. Two dissenting votes — the most internal disagreement since 2022 — suggest the next meeting is live.
Possibilities
Markets are pricing in the first scenario. A pivot to the second would be a shock — historically, the Fed's public unanimity has masked internal fractures that only became visible at inflection points.
Lies
"The Fed is caving to political pressure." Powell has not cited political considerations once. The narrative serves those who want a scapegoat for rate policy — and obscures the actual disagreement inside the building.